15 Nov 2001 Economic Working Group Meeting Report

The Economic Working Group of the SEG met Thursday, November 15, 2001 @  9am in the 3rd floor conference room of the USACE in Savannah.

Those in attendance were:

Judy Jennings called the meeting to order at 9:15am . SeaHub (who was to give a small presentation) was unable to attend. Agenda items agreed upon and finalized by the attendees. They were as follows:

I) Design Vessel

II) White Paper of Fleet Projections

It should be noted at this time that discussion began about adding an agenda item to this meeting...IE..."Alternative Plan formulation + Jasper Co.,S.C. Port Issues". It was agreed that this could be discussed but not at this meeting. It was deferred to a later date.

I) Design Vessel- Will Berson began the discussion that GPA had decided specifics about the design vessel that were final. Terry Stratton tried to explain to the group how the USACE decided on the specifics. They checked on the internet and with several shipping lines(including Maersk) to develop the design vessel specifications. New ship orders have changed somewhat to less than 1000 ft. The specifications are as follows: 1138 ft length, 140.6 ft. beam, 47.6 ft. draft (6000-7000 TEU's). Judy Jennings asked when the simulations of the design vessel will begin. Larry Keegan explained that the date is yet to be determined. It is noted per Will Berson that he stated the GA Conservancy will not take a position on the Design Vessel. Final point that was discussed on this was.. "Would less depth of the harbor cause a re-simulation?"(by Will Berson). The consensus answer was yes.

II) Fleet Projection White Paper - Discussion began where the EWG had left off from the last meeting. Some summary was given of what had taken place and new discussions began.

Assumption "E" - "Trends in Savannah fleet will reflect trends in world fleet"

Discussion began. Question on the table was the following..."Was this assumption made with or without harbor deepening in mind?" Morgan Rees stated that the answer was both, due to different projection for each. Will Berson asked "Should we accept marginal gains in decreased costs to impact environmental costs. Morgan Rees explained that increases in trends of larger draft ships even light loaded (48ft operating at 44ft, for example) are cheaper to use at that specification. Judy Jennings was unable to 100% agree with this due to concerns of hers about Savannah commodities report, changes and inequalities compared to world fleet commodities.

John Robinette stated his agencies concerns that , if this project goes forward and the harbor is deepened to 48ft...Would the GPA come back in 20-25 yrs and ask for 60ft? The consensus on this question was that is unforcastable.

Judy Jennings noted that she wanted to be record with the following concerns. "Trends" and "reflect" are imprecise terms. Trends implies neither slope or direction. Reflect does not imply an exact replica. So, with this in mind, the assumption could be true. But, if these terms are interpreted too rigidly, it might imply that the World Fleet would resemble the Savannah Fleet in every way.

The EWG came to consensus to have Terry Stratton and Morgan Rees to reflect relationship between Savannah fleet vs World Fleet that would apply to Fleet Projections in Tier II, if any exist.

Assumption "F" - "TEU capacity of fleet will equal demand"

The EWG came to consensus to agree with this assumption with an addition added as follows: " During period of analysis(on average) TEU capacity of fleet will be consistent with demand."

It is noted at this time that Morgan Rees stated that other White Papers will be circulated prior to next meeting to get feedback.

A tentative date for the next meeting was set at January 22, 2002 at 9am. Meeting was adjourned by Judy Jennings at 11:40 am.

Respectfully Submitted,

John T. Shelby, LWV of Sav-Chatham

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NEW TENTATIVE MEETING DATE IS JAN. 25th, 2002.