The GPA/SEG Economics Working Group met on December 14, 2000, in Savannah in USACOE offices.
Attendees included Larry Keegan, Morgan Rees, Richard Hill, Doug Plachy, Teri Leffek, Terry Stranton, and this writer.
There was discussion about the process by which the group would produce white papers to address previously unidentified assumptions. Morgan is working on grouping the assumptions into categories for papers. Examples of categories include multiport analysis, base year selection, commodity forecast, and fleet projections. Discussion pertaining to the sequence of work on white papers continues.
There was strong agreement to post to the web site white papers in draft form as "works in progress."
The group will continue to collect information on costs as well as benefits.
The group agreed that, as we develop white papers, a complete record of discussions should be kept. Larry will investigate who might be able to take minutes.
As a continuance of the discussion on the selection of design vessel, the following memo/questions have been submitted to Phil Thorpe of the Institute of Water Resources:
1) Based on our knowledge of the current order books and information we have read on future trends, we understand container ships are getting longer and a little wider, but in the past several years design draft seems to have stayed in the 47 to 49 ft range. Could you provide your thoughts on this? I.E.: Regina Maersk is 318.2 m long 14.5 m dft. Maersk ships built 1997-2000 are 347 m long and retain 14.5 m dft. The Maersk line is being only as a convenient proxy and not a statement of shipper intent or preference.
2) With a trend toward Asia to East Coast all water route growing, as congestion on the west coast continues to worsen, will ship building trends for the next 5 to 10 years be impacted or changed as a result of this trend? What magnitude of change from historic Asia to west then overland to east coast patterns Vs an all water route would you think possible?
3) With improvements in logistics via improvements in electronic tracking, do you think light loading practices will be impacted. We had discussion on more light loading occurring as a result of greater awareness of the value of items moving and discussions on less light loading occurring as a result of better knowledge about cargo in each port and the ability to optimize vessel loading with better information.
Again our intent at this time is to determine in light of trends and information in 2000, if the design vessel used in the 1996 analysis is still valid or not. At this point I think we all agree draft of 47 to 49 ft is valid but length has shifted at least to 347 m and breath, while it has not changed yet, still 42.8 m, is the next most likely variable to be impacted.