Marsh Succession Model Development and Impact Modeling

Started: 3rd Quarter 1999
Completion: 1st Quarter 2008

Brief description:

The goals of this work are to integrate data collected under the field data collection works into wetland impact prediction model.  This model will be a geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial model that will predict changes in wetland vegetation distribution caused by salinity and water level changes associated with harbor deepening.  A further goal of the model will be to study potential long-term (50-year) changes in vegetation distribution resulting from sea level rise. 

Current status:

The prototype model developed by Applied Technology and Management has been completed and delivered to the USACE for review and use. The Mobile District personnel are working with USFWS and USGS personnel (Dr. Wiley Kitchens and staff) to develop a similar succession model that is built upon the prototype model and employs different logic for prediction of plant families in the marsh. The Model to Marsh module (M2M) has been completed and reviewed and is ready for use by the USACE, Mobile District. The supporting EFDC input runs have been completed and provided. Initial impact runs utilizing both the ATM and USACE versions of the Marsh Succession Model are complete.

Both models are dependant upon a "Model to Marsh" module which translates the EFDC generated salinity predictions in the river to salinity values in the marsh. This module has proven incapable of providing usable output when used in evaluation of mitigation plans that modify the river hydraulics. This limitation stems from the basis of the module which is a sophisticated statistical model using past data. Without data for modified hydraulics, the module cannot provide usable output. No way around this limitation has been identified, so the decision was made by the Federal agencies to use the marsh succession models for impact evaluation only.

External peer review has been conducted and comment resolution is complete.

Links:

Marsh Succession Modeling Scope of Work
Hydrodynamic & Salinity linkage to the Marsh Succession Model (7536KB)
March 2003 Structured Element Modeling (SEM) presentation (Dr. Wiley Kitchens) (6.1 Mb)
Marsh 2003 Marsh GIS presentation (Dr. John Bossart) (4.9 Mb)